新疆玛纳斯河年径流时序特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Runoff Time Series in Manas River,Xinjiang Province

基于肯斯瓦特水文站54a的逐月径流实测资料,运用参数、非参数检验和R/S分析探讨了玛纳斯河径流量的趋势、跃变及未来的变化趋势,并利用径流量年内分配特征指数描述了径流量年内分配状况。结果表明,玛纳斯河径流量在1995年发生跳跃式的突变,并达到极显著水平,这也与径流量累积距平显示的结果一致;径流量的赫斯特指数大于0.5,具有持续性,预示其未来变化仍将保持增加走势;计算表明,玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特站径流量高度集中于夏季(6、7、8月),年内分配指数中的集中度比不均匀系数具有更强的分辨能力与灵敏性,集中期所对应的最大径流量出现时间与实际月份相同,并且各特征指数间存在关联性。

Based on the monthly runoff data for 54 years of the Kenswatt hydrological station on Manas river,we studied the annual trend,abrupt change and future trend by making use of parametric test,nonparametric test,and R/S analysis,and the annual distribution characteristics of runoff were depicted by using several correlative indices.Results showed that the annual runoff changed abruptly at 1994,agreeing with the conclusion from analysis on the accumulative anomaly index;the Hurst coefficient of the annual runoff was 0.7747（H0.5）,indicating that the runoff was of persistence and would still keep an increasing trend;the annual runoff at the Kenswatt station mainly concentrated in summer（June-August）,and the concentration degree was more discriminable and sensitive than the index of heterogeneity,and all the indices were correlative.