我国物价波动影响因素的实证研究——基于ARDL-ECM的预测检验

An Empirical Study on the Influence Factors of Price Fluctuation:A Forecasting Test by ADRL-ECM

理论和实证研究的多元化表明我国物价波动问题的复杂性和动态性。本文以2000年1月到2011年7月为样本期,将消费物价指数(CPI)和其他总量指标以及总量结构指标进行HP滤波处理,以波动趋势数据为研究对象。基于ARDL-ECM方法的预测检验结果表明,货币需求结构和进出口总额比例对我国消费物价指数波动具有较强的预测能力。货币总量调控政策仍然有效,但受结构波动影响。因此,在实施总量控制的基础上,应关注总量结构的偏离,提高政策实施效率。

Multiple views from theoretical and empirical studies have stated that price fluctuation is really a sophisticated and dynamic problem.Take the sample from Jan.2000 to July 2011,the paper studies on the relations between fluctuation trends of consumer price index and other gross indexes,gross structure indexes.The results of forecasting test by ARDL-ECM disclosure that demand structure for money and the proportion between exports and imports have strong forecasting abilities for the fluctuations of consumer price index than others.By controlling the gross amount,more attentions should be paid to the structure deviations of gross index.