中国煤炭需求的影响因素分析及峰值预测

An Analysis on the Influence Factors of Coal Demand and the Forecast of the Coal Demand Peak

分析预测中国煤炭需求的峰值,有利于我们正确认识目前的能源形势。影响煤炭需求的因素主要有城镇化发展水平、产业结构变化、能源加工转换效率,依据这三个因素的变化情况,通过构建间接预测模型对煤炭需求进行长期趋势预测。预测结果显示,中国到2030年将会出现煤炭需求的峰值。

It is necessary to forecast the coal demand peak in China. It helps us understand the energy situation of China. The level of urbanization, industry structure and efficiency of energy transformation are main influence factors on coal demand. Based on the above factors, this paper establishes an indirect forecast model. A long term forecast of coal demand has been accomplished by using the model. According to empirical forecast of coal demand, the coal peak in China will appear on the year 2030.