能源消费与经济增长的Kuznets曲线验证——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

The Verification of Kuznets Curve between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth——Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

利用1978-2008年中国各省(市、自治区)能源消费和人均生产总值(GDP)数据,采用非线性回归和拟合的方法进行回归分析,验证能源消费与经济水平之间是否存在倒U型曲线关系。结果表明中国大部分地区能源消费与经济水平之间存在典型的库兹涅茨曲线关系,其他不满足库兹涅茨曲线的地区也呈现倒U型曲线的趋势,但目前中国各地区还处在倒U型曲线的左侧,要到达曲线的拐点,尚需要较长的一段时间。

In the light of each province＇s （including cities and autonomous regions） energy consumption data and per capital GDP data from 1978 to 2008. The paper takes use of nonlinear regression and fitting method to have a regression analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and verifies that whether Kuznets curve exists between energy consumption and income. Results show that in most areas of China, there exists a typical Kuznets curve relation between energy consumpfion and economic level, what＇s more, the rest which deesn＇t fit Kuznets curve also tend to present an inverted Ucurve. But now each region of China still locates in the left of this inverted Ucurve, which still need a long time to reach the turning point.