宜昌市近59年来的气候变化趋势分析

Analysis of Climate Change Tendency in Yichang City in Recent 59 Years

利用1951年9月～2010年8月宜昌站逐日气象资料,采用气候趋势系数、5a滑动平均法、累积距平和一元线性回归法对宜昌市近59年来的气候变化趋势特征进行了诊断分析,结果表明:宜昌市的年平均气温呈现上升趋势,年平均最低气温的上升速率高于年平均最高气温的上升速率,导致年平均日较差呈现下降的趋势;在季节变化上,除了夏季,其他季节都呈升高趋势,其中春季的上升趋势最为显著.年降水量呈现略微增加的趋势,冬季增加趋势较为显著.该成果对进一步研究和预测宜昌市的气候变化有着重要意义.

Based on the daily meteorological data of Yichang City from September 1951 to August 2010,the variation characteristics of annual temperature and rainfall sequences were statistically analyzed with climate tendency coefficient,5a moving average analysis,accumulated variance analysis and simple linear regression method.The results show that the annual mean temperature of Yichang City appears a rising trend,the rising rate of annual mean minimum temperature is higher than maximum temperature rising rate,which resulted in downward trend of the average diurnal range of temperature.On the seasonal changes,the average temperature has a positive trend in most seasons,especially in spring,except for a slight decrease in summer.The annual precipitation trend shows a slight increase;in winter the increasing trend is more significant.Overall,this research has an important significance with further research and prediction of climate change in Yichang City.