基于空间变差函数的长江三角洲经济发展差异演变研究

Evolvement of Economic Development Diversity in the Changjiang River Delta Based on Spatial Variogram

以长江三角洲为例,运用空间变差函数分析了1978年、1988年、1998年和2008年4个时间断面的发展差异演化。研究发现:①长江三角洲经济发展空间关联效应的作用范围在不断地扩大,长江三角洲地区的经济发展受上海的辐射作用不断地增强;②经济发展的空间自组织性越来越强,空间经济分布差异明显;③在全方向上的均质程度越来越低,更多的差异体现在中观、宏观尺度,而微观尺度上空间差异变的越来越不明显;④东南—西北方向差异最大,东西方向的经济发展相对均衡。将长江三角洲发展差异演化因素归结为3个方面:历史基础、经济区位和区域发展政策。历史基础、经济区位是区域经济格局演化的内在因素,而区域发展政策则是区域经济格局演化的外在推力。

The unbalanced distribution of economic activities is an overwhelming phenomenon in regional economy. Therefore,the analysis on the diversity of regional economy and its cause is meaningful to accelerate the development of the underdeveloped regions and to maintain its competitiveness of the developed areas.With the help of the spatial variogram,and taking the Changjiang River Delta as an example,this paper aims to describe the economic evolvement among country-level cities spatially since 1978,based on four time sections： 1978,1988,1998 and 2008.Furthermore,it is going to discuss the influential factors of the evolvement of the regional economy diversity in the Changjiang River Delta.Through analysis,the paper finds out some spatial evolvement rules of the economy in the Changjiang River Delta.Firstly,the GDP per capita increases obviously, from 17.1 km in 1978 to 131.8 km in 2008.In addition,Shanghai enhances its economic radiation on the Changjiang River Delta constantly.Secondly,the economic development of Changjiang River Delta shows different structural characteristics in different periods.As time goes by,the spatial self-organized characteristics of the economic development has become stronger and stronger,and the distribution diversity of the spatial economy also gets clearer.Thirdly,in the perspective of spatial fractal dimension,the difference is the most obvious between the direction of the southeast and the northwest,while it is quite balanced between the direction of the east and the west.Fourthly,from the figure of Kriging 3D,the evolvement of the development diversity of the regional economy in Changjiang River Delta can be seen obviously.In 1978,the regional economy in Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi cities develops better,while the regions in the south develop slowly;in 1988,the economy of Zhejiang Province develops faster,and some high economic points emerges;in 1998,the high economic point regions expand obviously,which mainly distribute around Shanghai,while the northwestern areas develop slowly;in 2008,the high economic points move again to the southern parts,leaving the outlying areas of the Changjiang River Delta into a low ebb of the economic development.To conclude,three factors contribute to the evolvement of the economic development diversity in the Changjiang River Delta： historical conditions, economic location,and the policies of the regional economy development.The former two are the intrinsic factors and the latter one is the extrinsic factor.