新疆极端水文事件年际变化及对气候变化的响应

Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of Extreme Hydrological Events and Response to Climate Change in Xinjiang

利用1901～2010年极端水文事件资料,采用Mann-kendall统计检验研究其年际、年代际变化及对气候变化的响应,结果表明:年际变化总体为增加趋势,20世纪70年代以来增加显著;各地区由于主导灾害不同,年代际变化不尽相同,冰雹为主导灾害的地区80年代的发生频次最多,其它地区呈逐年代平稳增加;各类型极端水文事件年际变化也不尽相同,但于近10 a达最大值;极端水文事件增加趋势与气温、降水一致,不同极端水文事件对气候变化因子响应略有不同。

Based on the data of extreme hydrological events in Xinjiang from 1901 to 2010,the interannual and interdecadal variations and the trend were studied with Mann-kendall abrupt test and Mann-kendall trend test.The results indicated that the frequency of extreme hydrological events exhibited an obvious increasing trend from the 19th to the 21th,significant particularly since 1970s.The changes are different in various areas.The frequency in Tacheng,Kuytun-Shihezi,Bozhou,Hamilton,Turpan,Bazhou,Kashi,Kezhou and Aksu in 1980s is approximate twice compared with that in 1990s.And the frequencies in these areas in 1980s were the highest,which is related to their lead hail hazards.The frequencies in other areas increased steady.The interannual and interdecadal variations are also not so identical,but they get to the maximum during the past 10 year.The trend of extreme hydrological events increases significantly,and is consistent with temperature and precipitation.The responses to the climate change are a little different during various extreme hydrological events.