中美能源消费增长的驱动因素比较研究

A Comparative Study of Driving Factors for Incremental Energy Consumption Between China and United States

将投入产出结构分解法和加权夏普雷法相结合,运用1992和2007年的投入产出表比较研究中美能源消费增长的驱动因素,结果表明:(1)国内最终需求的成长、中间需求的成长和出口的成长均是两国的能源消费增长的正向驱动因素,中国的正向驱动效果强于美国;(2)技术进步和进口替代均是负向驱动因素,中国的负向驱动效果弱于美国;(3)国内最终需求的结构变化、出口的结构变化是美国能源消费增长的负向驱动因素,在中国却为正向驱动因素。

In this paper, an input-output structure decomposition analysis combined with Weighted Shapley method is used to study and compare driving factors for incremental energy consumption between China and United States, based on 1992 and 2007 input-output tables. The results show that： （1） Domestic final demand＇ s growth, intermediate demand＇s growth and export＇ s growth are positive driving factors for increasing incremental energy consumption in the two countries, each positive effect on china is stronger than that of United States; （2） Technological progress and import substitution are negative driving factors for decreasing incremental energy consumption in the two countries, each negative effect on china is weaker than that of United States; （3） Changes in the structure of domestic final demand and changes in the structure of export are negative driving factors in United States, but are positive driving factors in China.