FDI、出口贸易与经济可持续增长研究——基于联立方程模型对福建经济的实证分析

Empirical Study on FDI,Export Trade and Sustainable Growth of Fujian Economy:A Simultaneous Equations Approach

考察FDI、出口贸易对经济增长和环境污染影响的已有文献,至今的研究往往忽略了同时探讨能源消费与它们之间的互动机制。鉴于此,本文使用1985-2009年的福建省时间序列经济数据,构建了包含能源消费方程在内的四方程联立方程模型进行实证分析,结果表明:一是福建省的经济增长与能源消费、经济增长与工业整体污染之间都存在着"倒U型"的曲线关系;二是FDI对于减少福建省的能源消费和工业整体污染都是有利的;三是为实现福建经济的可持续增长,政府和企业需要在大幅度提高产品的科技含量和附加价值、加强对内资出口企业的节能与环保技术改造和升级、调整产业结构并引导FDI更多地进入服务业领域以及加大环境污染治理的投资力度等方面制定切实可行的政策措施。

This paper attempts to build a model with simultaneous equations by using the sequence data from 1985-2009 of Fujian economy and made a positive analysis, the empirical conclusion indicated： 1. there is a Kuznets curve with inverted U form both between energy consumption and economic growth also among overall industrial pollution and economic growth in Fujian economy, 2. FDI is favorable to the reduction of energy consumption and the abatement of overall industrial pollution, 3. Focusing on the problems of Fujian economic, it is very necessary to formulate some practical policies and measures for achieving a sustainable growth.