全球经济衰退下的南非德班(COP17)气候变化谈判

The Durban Conference (COP17) Negotiation under the Global Economic Recession

本文总结了2010年坎昆会议以来气候变化谈判的进展情况,分析了在"全面、公平、平衡"谈判要求下,不同缔约方的主张和诉求。本文强调,要不要《京都议定书》第二承诺期和公约长期合作行动下的可比性问题,依然是谈判的焦点,是德班会议能否取得成果的基石。本文指出,尽管一年来在技术转让、农业和森林保护、组织结构形式等方面取得进展,但在资金问题上,尤其是2003以后的资金,以及适应和能力建设方面需要进一步推动。作者认为,联合国气候变化谈判要适应改变了的气候变化政治生态环境,找到一个各方都能接受的平衡点。本文对2011年底的德班COP17的会议作了三个期望的情景。如能在德班达到像坎昆决议那样的有约束力的文件是一个比较好的成果,继续推进谈判的进行。

This paper summarizes progresses since COP 16 in Cancun by the end of 2010,and analyzes what claims and goals Parties have on climate change negotiation with comprehensive,fair and balanced criterion.This paper emphasizes that the second phase commitment of the Kyoto Protocol and the comparability of LCA for non-annex 1 developed countries are the core of climate change negotiation,and are also foundation for achievable success in Durban COP17.It is pointed out that the negotiation in technology transfer,agriculture and RED＋,and management structures has made progress,however,it is still far away to get agreements in funding support,particularly in 2003 an beyond,adaptation and capacity building.The authors recognize the UN negotiation on climate change should match the changed the politically ecologic environment,and find a balanced point that all Parties can accept.The paper develops three scenarios of Durban COP17 expectation on climate change.It is a better expectation if an agreement like Cancun Decision with binding instrument can be made.Thus the negotiation will be continued in the right track.