人民币汇率与中国居民消费的实证研究

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Residents' Consumption in China: An Empirical Research

扩大居民消费是中国应对国际金融危机和后金融危机时期实现经济可持续发展的重要举措。作为开放经济条件下引导社会交易和优化资源配置的价格信号,人民币汇率究竟对中国居民消费能够产生什么样的影响?这是需要深入研究的一个重要问题。通过建立向量误差修正模型,选取居民消费支出总额、人民币实际有效汇率指数和居民消费价格指数三个变量,基于2005年7月至2010年7月的月度样本数据,重点对人民币汇率与中国居民消费的相互关系进行实证检验,结果表明:人民币汇率制度改革后,人民币实际有效汇率指数在短期内对中国居民消费支出总额产生的影响在统计上不显著,其长期影响也是微弱的,人民币实际有效汇率指数与居民消费支出总额之间不存在互为因果的关系。扩大居民消费的主要动力不是来自于人民币汇率和物价水平的变动,而是来自于居民消费本身的惯性。

Expansion of residents＇ consumption is an important countermeasure to tackle the financial crisis and achieve sustainable economic development in the post-crisis period. As a price signal to guide social transactions and optimize resource allocation in an open economy, what is the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on residents＇ consumption in China？ There is considerable controversy in theory and practice, which needs in-depth studies. Based on the data collected monthly during the period from July 2005 to July 2010, this paper selected consumer expenditures, real effective exchange rate index and consumer price index as a tool to observe the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Chinese residents＇ consumption so as to provide the basis for expanding residents＇ consumption and improving the RMB exchange rate system.