危险化学品泄漏事故点火概率取值研究

Study on Values Taking of Ignition Probabilities in Hazardous Chemical Leakage Accidents

为计算危险化学品泄漏后发生火灾、爆炸等事故的概率,提高风险评估的量化水平,对点火概率的取值进行研究。从模型计算和直接取参考值2个方面探讨点火概率的取值问题,提出不同情形下的取值建议,并结合案例应用对点火概率2种取值方法进行对比分析研究。研究结果表明:点火概率模型计算不确定性较大且适用性有限,而直接取值的参考值均由一系列事件统计而得出,具有一定的科学性,实际取值更倾向于根据经验数据或已有的数据进行取值,但取值时需要充分考虑实际情况(如安全条件等)进行适当的修正,以便取值更科学。

In order to calculate accident probabilities of fire and explosion after dangerous chemicals leaking and improve the quantification level of risk assessment,the value taking for ignition probabilities was researched based on the domestic and foreign literatures.Firstly,the value taking for ignition probabilities was discussed from calculation models and direct reference value,and some advice for taking value under different situation was proposed.Then through an example,a verification and comparative analysis was made between the application of calculation models for ignition probabilities and the application of direct reference value.The results show that the calculation models for ignition probabilities have bigger computational uncertainty and limited applicability while direct reference value from a series of statistical events is scientific.Actual value taking more depends on empirical data or existing data,and considers the actual situation（such as safety conditions,etc.） so as to make the value more scientific.