摘要
为分析城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能,采用随机Petri网理论,考虑运营生产、治安消防和自然灾害3类应急预案,构建城市轨道交通应急系统的随机Petri网模型,并基于模型的马尔科夫链得到系统处于各种状态时的稳态概率表达式,通过改变各个变迁的触发速率,分析系统各种状态稳态概率的变化情况。结果表明,这个模型能够体现影响城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能的各因素之间的关系,并能通过数值变化趋势反映不同事故情况下提高安全性能的关键所在,达到分析系统安全性能的目的。
To analyze performance of the urban rail transit emergency response system,a stochastic Petri net model is given by adopting Petri net theory and taking into account three kinds of emergency plans,namely,operation and production,public security and fire,and natural disasters.The expressions of this system＇s steady-state probabilities under various states are obtained by Markov chain,and the variations of the probability are analyzed by changing the fire rates of each transition.The results show that,the relations of all the given factors that influence the safety performance analysis can be reflected through the given model,the crucial points for improving safety performance under different situations can be obtained by change trend of quantity,and the desired effect of analyzing the safety performance can be achieved.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第9期82-87,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71161016)
