汇率体制和出口边际

Exchange rate regimes and export margins

出口边际涵盖了广度边际、深度边际、价格指数、数量指数和质量边际。将109个国家的实际汇率体制分成固定汇率、爬行汇率、管理浮动和自由浮动四类,运用1992-2001年各国对美国的制造业产品出口数据,估计了各类汇率体制对出口边际的影响。研究发现,固定汇率制对出口广度和深度的促进作用是和汇率低估程度紧密相关,只有当汇率低估程度达到30%以上时,固定汇率制才对出口广度和深度起到促进作用。固定汇率和爬行汇率制国家的出口质量较低,而管理浮动制国家的出口质量较高。虽然在固定汇率制下大幅低估汇率能够促进出口,但它是以低价低质为竞争手段的,而管理浮动制能够抑制低价促进出口的程度,使得提高质量成为促进出口的手段,有助于一个国家保持长远的出口竞争力。

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate regimes on export margins.Export margins include extensive margin,intensive margin,price index,quantity index and quality index.In this paper,the de facto exchange rate regimes in 109 countries are classified into four categories: fixed peg,crawling peg,managed float and free float.Taking advantage of the data on the manufacturing exports to the U.S.from 1992-2001,we estimate the effect of exchange rate regimes on export margins.The findings show that the effects of the fixed peg on export extensive margin and intensive margin are closely related to the degree of exchange rate undervaluation;the fixed peg regime promotes the export extensive margin and intensive margin only when the exchange rate is undervalued by 30% or above;the export quality index is relatively low in countries with fixed peg and crawling peg,and relatively high in countries with managed float.In addition,although the fixed peg regime can promote exports by significantly undervaluing the exchange rate,it achieves this by exporting goods of low price and poor quality.In contrast,under the regime of managed float,the use of low prices to promote exports decreases and the enhancement of quality becomes a main tool to promote export growth,which helps to raise the export competitiveness of a country in the long run.