基于LMDI的中国碳排放驱动因素研究

Research on Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in China Based on LMDI

基于扩展的Kaya恒等式及对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分析法构建了一个包括能源规模、能源结构、二氧化碳排放因子、能源强度、经济规模、产业结构、人口规模、城乡人口结构和生活水平在内的二氧化碳排放驱动因素叠加分解模型。该模型对碳排放的驱动因素作了完整的分解和系统的量化,可为碳减排路径的选择及政策的制定提供理论依据。实证分析结果表明:经济规模与能源强度是二氧化碳排放最强且稳健的驱动因素;能源结构、生活水平也显示了较强的驱动作用;产业结构、人口规模、城乡结构的历史驱动贡献度相对较小,但驱动力巨大,应予以足够重视。

An analyzing model on the superposed driving factors of the carbon dioxide emissions based on the expanded Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method（LMDI） was established in this paper,which included the energy scale,the energy structure,the carbon dioxide emissions factors,the energy intensity,the economic scale,the industrial structure,the population scale,the urban-rural structure and the living level.Completely analyzing and systematically quantizing the driving factors of the carbon emissions,the model worked as a theoretical basis for the solutions selecting and the policy proposals of the carbon emissions reduction.The empirical analysis result shows that the economic scale and the energy intensity are the strongest stable driving factors of the carbon emissions,while the energy structure and the living level play a secondary role.Though the industrial structure,the population scale and the urban-rural structure devote little to the driving in the past,they have strong driving forces and should be paid enough attention and controlled by a long-term strategy plan.