BP神经网络在基本养老保险基金支付风险预警中的应用

The Application of BP Neural Network in the Early Risk Warning of Basic Pension Insurance Fund Pays

尝试将BP神经网络引入基本养老保险基金的风险预警中,以期为其提供一种新的预警工具和方法。首先,建立了一套基本养老保险基金风险预警指标体系,构建了基于BP网络的基本养老保险基金风险预警模型;其次,采集1996年至2008年间的上海市各年度基本养老保险基金的历史数据对该模型进行了反复训练和学习,取得了误差率仅为3.86%的预测结果,说明该模型有很好的拟合度;最后,依据国际国内经验对基本养老保险基金的警情指标设置了五个警度输出区间。

The author is attempting to bring the BP neural network into the basic pension insurance fund risk warning,in order to provide a new tool and method for it.First,an early warning indicators system is constructed,a model of early warning for the basic pension insurance fund is built based on the BP network.Then this model is repeated trained and studied through historical data of pension fund from year 1996 to 2008 in Shanghai.The authors get only 3.86% for the prediction results error rates,and it turns out that the model has best goodness of fit.At the end,the warning intelligence indicators are divided into five different early warning zones based on the international and domestic experience of the basic pension insurance fund.