金融自由化对我国住宅价格变化的影响

Research on the Impact of Financial Liberalization on Residential Property Price Changes

基于中国2000-2010年的季度数据,利用FAVAR模型研究得出:金融自由化对总体住宅价格变化具有明显的正向冲击,国际资本流动、房贷放松和国内资本市场开放的冲击效应依次增强;金融自由化对普通住宅价格变化的正向冲击效果明显,对经济适用房价格变化具有较弱的负向冲击效果,对高档住宅价格变化的冲击波动较大,比较复杂。因此,金融自由化对中国住宅价格变化起到了直接的推动作用,稳步有序地推进金融自由化进程、加强住宅投资的审慎监管、管好信贷闸门、引导外资的合理流向和加大保障性住房的供给对抑制房价过快增长至关重要。

By use of the seasonal data in the period ranging from 2000 to 2010,and the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive（FAVAR）model,it is denoted from the research that the financial liberalization has a positive impact on the change in the total house price,and the effect of the international capital flow,loosening of the housing credit and the opening-up of the domestic capital market is strengthen successively.The financial liberalization has a positive impact on the change in the ordinary house price,but a weaker negative impact on that in the economic and suitable house price.The fluctuation of the impact on the change in the high-grade house price is greater and relatively complex.It is,therefore,concluded that while the financial liberalization plays a direct driving role in the change in the house price in China,with the purpose of restraining the too rapid increase in the house price,it is of great importance to steadily and orderly promote financial liberalization process,intensify the prudent supervision over residential investment,control in a good way the credit gate,guide the reasonable flow direction of foreign capital,and increase the supply of the guarantee nature houses.