摘要
在经典SEIR模型的基础上,提出了基于元胞自动机带有干预机制的传染病模型,模拟了在医疗干预下传染病的传播过程,动态刻画了不同时间段疾病的爆发情况,体现了传染病区域性传播的特性以及流动性传染的特点。不同传染病各自传播的特征如周期性传播、消退型传播、爆发等,均能在模拟中体现出来,符合传染病传播的规律。仿真结果表明医疗干预和疫苗等医疗措施对传染病传播起到一定的抑制作用,量化了医疗干预的效果,为采取合理的预防及干预手段提供了量化依据。
Based on the classical SEIR（susceptible,exposed,infections,and recovered） model,a cellular automaton（CA） model with medical intervention is proposed to simulate epidemic propagation.The model describes the outbreak of infectious diseases dynamically at different time steps.The newly constructed rules of neighborhood can not only reflect the regional characteristics of epidemic propagation,but also indicate flow characteristics.The CA model can reflect the characteristics of spread,such as periodic and fade-type transmission and the peak value of outbreak.The effects of medical intervention and vaccination strategy have been studied.The proposed model can serve as a quantitative basis for future medical intervention.
出处
《北京化工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期109-113,共5页
Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(70801003)
中央高基本科研业务费专项资金(ZZ1133)
关键词
元胞自动机
传染病传播
医疗干预
疫苗
cellular automaton
epidemic propagation
medical intervention
vaccination
