基于ECM模型的投资拉动与经济增长波动关系实证分析——以苏州市为例

The Experimental Analysis of the Relationship Between Investment Promotion And Economic Growth And Fluctuation basing on ECM Model ——Taking Suzhou as Example

运用计量经济分析工具,分析了1981—2008年苏州市全社会固定资产与经济增长的动态关系,发现两者存在长期协整关系。运用ECM模型定量分析了全社会固定资产投资变动对经济增长波动的影响,当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,误差修正调整系数则以-0.267的力度反作用于经济增长的波动,从而使两者间呈现不断向均衡状态变化的总体趋势。

This paper analyzed dynamic relationship between Total investment in fixed assets and economic growth in Suzhou city from year 1981 to 2008,where there exists co-integration relationship.And analyzed total investment in fixed assets fluctuations on economic growth,which is when the short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium,error correction coefficient will have inverse function to economic growth in the strength of minus0.267,so that both appear to equilibrium change.