陕西科技投入与经济增长的动态均衡研究

Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Equilibrium Relationship between Government Technical Investment and Economic Growth of Shaanxi Province

本文利用陕西省1978-2010年的财政科技投入和GDP数据,采用协整及向量自回归(VAR)技术研究两者之间的动态均衡关系。研究结果表明:从长期来看,陕西省财政科技投入和经济增长之间存在稳定的均衡关系;通过VAR(2)模型及脉冲响应分析,表明陕西省财政科技投入对经济增长的作用逐渐增加,并且呈现出稳定的正向响应收敛迹象。因此,在政策措施上应采取长期而非短期的政策,以保证科技投入对陕西省经济增长的正向拉动作用。

In this paper,the data of technology investment in Shaanxi Province and GDP between 1978-2010 are used to investigate their dynamic relaitonship by the use of vector autoregressive（VAR） techniques.The results show that,in the long run,there is a stable equilibrium between Shaanxi Province RD and economic growth.The Granger causality test shows that RD expenditure and economic growth have causal relationship.It also suggests that RD expenditure in Shanxi Province has an increasing impact on the economic growth and shows signs of steady convergence of positive response through the VAR（2） model and impulse response analysis.