基于线性规划模型的牧业生产和牧户收入、草畜平衡关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationships among Livestock Production,Income of Herdsman Households and Balance between Grass and Livestock by Linear Programming Model

在对内蒙古牧户牧业生产基本情况分析基础上,利用最优线性规划模型,对牧业规模、牧业结构和牧户收入等问题进行了深入的分析。研究表明:大多数规模户和混养户要达到最优规模和实现草畜平衡,必须收缩牧业规模,但会造成收入的下降;大多数散养户和奶牛户要达到最优规模,必须扩大饲养量或转出牧草地;扩大奶牛的规模有利于牧户提高收入,但奶牛的规模变动能力最难;进一步加强牧草地的保护有利于牧户牧业规模的增长和收入的增加。

On the basis of analyzing the basic conditions about herdsman households in semi-arid areas of Inner Mongolia,we use the optimal linear programming model to make an in-depth analysis about the scale of animal husbandry,animal husbandry structure and the income of herdsman households.The conclusion of this study shows as follows： if the majority of the size of households and households polyculture reach optimum size and achieve the balance between pasture and livestock,they must shrink the scale of animal husbandry,but it will cause a decline of income;If most backyard farmers and dairy farmers achieve optimal size,they must expand the size or keep out of some of pasture;to expand the size of dairy cattle is in favor of improving income,but the capacity of scale changes of dairy cattle is the most difficult;to further strengthen the protection of grassland will be useful to expand the scale of livestock and increase revenue.