基于PVAR的省际金融发展与国际贸易关系研究

Research on Interaction Relationship between Finance and International Trade Based on Panel VAR

本文基于省际面板数据,采用面板数据向量自回归模型分析金融与国际贸易的关系。研究表明,出口和经济发展水平对金融发展的促进作用大于进口的作用。金融与国际贸易在滞后2期后互为因果关系,在滞后3期只有出口是金融发展的原因。金融的冲击对出口和进口的影响均为正,进口和出口的冲击对金融的影响总体均是负值。金融的方差分解表明,金融主要受经济发展水平的影响,而且大大高于自身影响,这和金融本质上是为经济服务的工具的地位是相适应的,进口和出口对金融的预测方差误差影响很小。金融发展与国际贸易之间的关系总体是比较平稳的,即使存在某种冲击,但相互之间的影响在短期有轻微反应后,长期是平稳的,我国的金融体系尚难以适应国际贸易的发展。外商直接投资与我国国际贸易的发展无关。

This paper analyzes the relationship between finance and international trade based on panel VAR. The results show that the contribution to finance of export and GDP is more than that of import. There exists cause-effect relationship between finance and international trade at lag of 2 years. Export is the only cause of finance at lag of 3 years. The impulsion of finance is positive to export and import. The impulsion of export and import is negative to finance. The variance decomposition of finance shows it is mainly affected by GDP, and import and export has little effect on it. The relationship between finance and international trade is mainly smooth. The finance system in China is not suitable to international trade. Foreign direct investment is independent of international trade.