ECFA对韩国、日本向中国大陆货物出口的影响分析

An Analysis of ECFA’s Impact on Export from R. O. Korea & Japan to China Mainland

文章结合ECFA早收清单,通过出口产品相似度指数对中国台湾地区与韩国、日本在中国大陆市场上的货物贸易竞争关系进行了分析。文章认为在中国大陆市场上,中国台湾地区-韩国之间产品竞争程度整体高于中国台湾地区与日本。EC-FA早收清单实施后,将很快严重影响到韩国有机化学品、钢铁等诸多产品向中国大陆的出口,而日本的有关产品也将受到较大冲击。文章最后就在ECFA背景下如何进一步推动东亚经济一体化及其对中国大陆今后的有关贸易策略提出一点思考。

Using export product similarity index and the Early Harvest Program for ECFA, this paper analyzes the relationship of trade competition between Taiwan and R. O. Korea and that between Taiwan and Japan in the market of China Mainland empirically. The results indicate that the competition level be- tween Taiwan and R. O. Korea is higher than that between Taiwan and Japan. After carried out, the Early Harvest Program for ECFA will affect R. O. Korea＇ s export to China soon, especially greatly on some goods such as organic chemicals and iron and steel. And it will cause a shock to Japan＇ s export of goods listed in that program, too. Based on the above, this paper submits some suggestions on China Mainland＇ s trade strategy and discusses how to accelerate the progress of East Asia＇ s economic integration in the post-ECFA period.