产业内贸易对东亚经济周期协动性影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Effect of Intra-industry Trade on East Asian Business Cycle Co-movement

本文从理论上分析了产业内贸易对东亚经济周期协动性的影响,基于1990-2009年的数据,首先分析了中国与东亚各国产业内贸易指数的动态变化;其次,运用HP滤波方法提取周期因子ct,验证了东亚经济周期的协动性。在此基础上,构建了以贸易强度和产业内贸易为自变量,经济周期协动性为因变量的回归模型,运用分期数据对产业内贸易与经济周期协动性进行了面板数据的固定效应回归分析。研究结果揭示:相较于贸易强度,产业内贸易对中国与东亚经济周期协动性的影响更直接更显著,产业内贸易是中国与东亚经济周期协动性的主要传导渠道。随着产业内贸易比重的提高,中国与东亚贸易伙伴经济周期的协动性趋强。

This paper analyzes the effect of intra-industry trade on East Asian business cycle co-movement. It first analyzes the dynamic change of intra-industry trade of China and East Asian countries, and then applies HP filtering method to get cycle factor ct to prove the co-movement of East Asian economy cycle. At last, the paper sets up a regression model including trade intensity, liT and economic co-movement, and makes empirical study on the relation between intra-industry trade and East Asian business cycle. The conclusion is that intra-industry trade is the main factor affecting the economic co-movement between China and East Asia, and the paper also proposes some policy suggestions for China＇ s open economy.