环境规制、技术进步与出口贸易扩张--基于我国28个工业大类VAR模型的脉冲响应与方差分解

A Study on Environmental Regulation,Technological Progress and Export Expansion:Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Based on VAR Model of 28 Industrial Categories in China

基于我国28个工业大类的时间序列数据构建了VAR模型,并就环境规制、环境技术进步对出口贸易扩张的影响,进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解。实证结果表明,我国工业出口贸易扩张与环境规制、环境技术进步之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系;出口贸易扩张对环境技术进步的脉冲响应较之环境规制更为敏感和显著,环境技术进步是影响出口贸易扩张的最主要因素。从而认为,后经济危机时期实行合理的环境规制仍然十分必要,并就健全与贸易有关的环境规制政策与制度,促进环境技术进步,铸造出口贸易环境竞争优势,贯彻环境友好型出口贸易战略等提出了对策与建议。

This paper constructs a VAR model based on time series data of China＇ s 28 industrial categories, and makes impulse response analysis and variance decomposition for export trade expansion impacts of environmental regulation and environmental technological progress. The empirical results show that, a stable long-term equilibrium relationship exists in the expansion of China＇ s industrial exports, environmental regulation, and environmental technological progress, and the impulse response of export trade expansion to environmental technological progress is more sensitive and significant than that to environmental regulation, moreover, environmental technological progress is the most important factor. The paper supports that, after the economic crisis, implementing a reasonable environmental regulation is still very necessary, and it also offers policy recom- mendations for improving trade-related environmental regulation policy and system, promoting environmental technological progress, casting environmental-competitive advantage of export trade, and implementing environment-friendly strategy on export trade.