我国巨灾风险可保性的理性思考

A Rational Thinking on the Insurability of Catastrophe Risks in China

巨灾保险虽然一直未能真正踏上破冰之旅,但近年频发加剧的巨灾,使巨灾保险再次成为保险业的聚焦领域。巨灾风险可保性争论不休,业界徘徊不前,厘清巨灾风险的保险属性,可否引导市场参与巨灾风险的有效管理,特别是金融市场、保险市场和资本市场的联动推进,更是尚需解决的问题。基于巨灾风险管理的理论分析认为,我国巨灾风险具备可保性有其理论依据和现实条件。根据保险经济学原理,构建了系列巨灾保险模型,结果表明在风险管理方法、技术发展成熟以及政府政策支持诱导下,巨灾风险具备可保性。结合路径依赖理论,还提出了我国目前制度环境下巨灾保险的可行路径。

Although catastrophe insurance has not really seen creased frequency of catastrophes has made it a focal topic in the meaningful development, but in recent years, ininsurance industry once again. Insurability of catastrophic risks has been debated constantly and the insurance industry remained standstill till today. Therefore, whether clarifying the insurance property of catastrophic risks may guide effective management of catastrophe risks, and especially lead to collaboration among the financial markets, insurance markets and capital markets is still an imminent problem to be resolved. Based on the theory of catastrophe risk management analysis, the paper held that the insurability of catastrophic risks had its theoretical basis and practical conditions in China. According to the insurance principles of economics, the paper built a series of catastrophic insurance models and demonstrated that with proper risk management, mature technology and government policy support, catastrophic risks were insurable. Taking into account the path dependency theory, the paper also put forward the feasible path for China＇s catastrophe insurance under current institutional environment.