摘要
如果以松江府及其周边五州县的明初历史人口数据为计算原点,再以人口增长率3.4‰为基础,便有可能算出明清各时代自然增长下的人口数字。可是如此推算18世纪末的人口,较诸同时期准确的统计人口,竟高出达200多万之谱。要处理这庞大的人口差异,其实就是要说明这数以百万计的人口是如何消失的。我们采取的方法是针对1641年至1680年间四个天灾人祸设定级别而作出微调,从而估算明末该地区的人口损失及人口发展状况。若将有关估算结果继续上推至18世纪末,也与乾嘉时代的统计人口相当吻合。这种方法一如其他估算之道,虽非定论,但可为史无明文但处于非常重要时空的中国历史人口,提供一个新的推算方法。此外,以我们的方法计算,1640年左右松江府及周边州县的人口已达500万之谱,这与乾嘉盛世同地区的人口相比,可谓毫不逊色。
This Article estimates the population of the Greater Songjiangfu Region,which consisted of Songjiangfu and its adjacent five counties in the late Ming.Our estimation was based on the agreed natural population growth rate of 3.4‰ and a systematic schema of four rates of natural and human calamities leading to different degrees of depopulation.The resultant projections matched well with the more reliable enumeration figures compiled in the late eighteenth century.This method hence opens another approach to the estimation of important historical population in imperial China at periods when no reliable census figures are available.According to this estimation,the population of the region could reach 5 millions by 1640.The highly commercialized region was therefore as populous as what it appears to have been when more reliable enumeration was conducted in the high Qing.
出处
《清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期45-54,157,共10页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
蒋经国基金会资助项目的部分成果