2011年的美中关系：从脆弱到实质性稳定

US-China Relations in 2011: From Fragile to Substantive Stability

美中关系在经过2010年的跌宕起伏后,于2011年转向稳定并开始取得实质性改善,其明显标志就是胡锦涛年初对华盛顿的国事访问以及2011年5月第三轮美中战略与经济对话的举行。中美关系正在从"不稳定"或"脆弱的稳定"朝着"实质性的稳定"迈进。鉴于两国关系的客观复杂性、这种关系的全球性特征、两国不同的政治社会制度、两国的规模大得惊人的经济和军事力量以及相互重叠的国家安全利益,相互之间存在竞争是很自然的,但这并非一种冷战式的竞争。未来美中关系很可能仍将是一种合作和竞争的混合体,我们的使命就是要扩大合作范围并管理和减少竞争范围。

Following a very rocky year in bilateral relations during 2010, the Sino-American relationship has stabilized and begun to make substantive improvements during 2011. Two key events have contributed to the turnaround and improvement in relations: the January 2011 state visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington, D.C., and the May 2011 Third Round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). While ties during 2010 could be described as 'unstable' or 'fragile stability,' now we are building towards 'substantive stability.' Given the functional complexities of the relationship, its global nature, the differing domestic political and social systems, and the sheer size of the two economies and two militaries, and overlapping national security interests, it is natural that there should be a competitive dynamic to the relationship, but it is not a Cold War style competition. The Sino-American relationship is likely to continue to be a mixture of cooperation and competition. Our task is to expand the cooperative dimension while managing and reducing the competitive dimension.