供应链产量博弈模型构建及复杂性仿真分析

Output game modeling in supply chain and its complexity simulation analysis

在分析了供应链多种不同博弈模型的基础上,构建了一个不对称信息下供应链中生产商和分销商两角色的产量博弈模型。对该模型的纳什均衡点做了分析,提出了导致生产商产量决策出现混沌现象的原因,做了数值模拟。模拟结果表明,在不对称信息的条件下,不同的产量调整系数会对生产商决策产生很大影响,生产商角色在决策时候会产生分岔和混沌等现象,而分销商决策则相对稳定。给出了控制生产商决策混沌化的建议。

Based on an analysis of a variety of game models in the supply chain,this paper proposes the construction of an output game model consisting of the manufacturers and the distributors under the circumstances of information asymmetry. This paper argues,after a study on Nash equilibrium,that in the process of output decision making,the distributors’order volume is stable,but the manufacturers’ output decision making is chaotic.The factors that cause chaos in output decision making among manufacturers are analyzed and numerical simulation is conducted.It is found that under the circumstances of information asymmetry,the differences in output adjustment factor exert great impact on the manufacturers’output decision making.The strategies to keep the chaos among manufacturers under control are suggested.