基于宏观经济计量模型的财政政策效应分析

Macroeconomic Model Estimation on the Influences of Fiscal Policy

本文通过一个宏观经济模型测算出我国财政政策乘数为1.88,并且呈上升趋势。本文还以四万亿财政刺激方案为例,测算财政支出对政府消费、居民消费、固定资产形成和进出口的具体影响,研究发现财政政策是调节总需求的重要杠杆,应对金融危机,选择以增加公共投资为主的财政政策作为刺激经济复苏的工具是正确的。随着我国经济由政策刺激下的快速回升转入稳定增长阶段,积极的财政政策在"调结构"和"稳增长"方面仍具有重要的政策含义。

This paper explores the influences of fiscal policy, and calculates the fiscal muhiplier by macroeconomic model in China. In particular, this paper estimates the influences of China＇s 4 trillion Yuan economic stimulus plan in 2008 on government and resident consumption, fixed capital formation, export and import. The results show that the fiscal multiplier in China is about 1.88 with an increasing trend, and fiscal stimulus policy has positive influences on economic growth and development.