我国新型农村养老保险对财政体系可持续性的影响研究——基于代际核算方法的模拟分析

On the Effect of New Rural Social Pension Insurance System on the Sustainability of Fiscal System in China: Simulation Analysis Based on Intergenerational Accounting

文章利用Auerbach等(1991)提出的代际核算方法,基于符合国情的参数假设,分析了各种"新农保"方案对财政体系可持续性的影响。模拟结果表明,按照目前方案建立"新农保"体系并不会给政府增加太多负担,"新农保"覆盖面扩大的快慢对财政体系的负担基本也没有影响。由于个人账户中积累的资金目前按照一年期定期存款计息,政府承担的个人账户长寿风险非常有限。"新农保"体系带给政府的主要财政负担来自全额负担基础养老金,如果政府把全国的基础养老金都提高至上海市每月135元的水平,给政府增加的负担不会过多。因此,政府可以加快"新农保"覆盖面扩大的速度,并在现有的财力水平下把全国农村的基础养老金都提高至上海市的水平,但是提高幅度不宜进一步加大。

This paper employs the method of intergenerational accounting raised by Auerbach et al in 1991 to analyze the effects of new rural social pension insurance plans on the sustainability of fiscal system.The simulation results show that the new rural social pension insurance system established according to current plan will not greatly increase the burden on the governments and the rate of the increase in the coverage of new rural social pension insurance system do not basically affect the burden of fiscal system.Because the cumulative funds in individual accounts are measured at one-year fixed deposit interest rate at present,the longevity risk of individual accounts bore by the governments is rather limited.The heavy burden of new rural social pension insurance system on the governments comes from the basic pension completely bore by the governments;and if the basic pension increases to the level in Shanghai,namely 135 RMB monthly,it will not lead to heavier burden on the governments.Therefore,the governments can raise the rate of the increase in the coverage of new rural social pension insurance system;under current fiscal income,the governments can increase the rural basic pension to the level in Shanghai,but the increasing range should not be further enlarged.