信用与经济增长关系实证研究——基于多层次视角的VAR分析

Empirical Study of the Relationship between Credit and Economic Growth: VAR Analysis from the Multiple-level Angle

信用与经济增长之间存在复杂的内在联系。文章利用1990-2007年中国经济数据,实证分析了信用规模及结构与经济增长的关系。结果表明:不同层次的信用规模与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系且为正相关关系;与非金融部门相比,金融部门信用规模的变化对实际GDP增长的正向影响更大;各层次信用规模与经济增长之间只存在单向因果关系,即经济增长对各层次信用规模的变化有显著的正向效应,而各层次信用规模的变化均未显著影响经济增长。

There is a complex relationship between credit and economic growth.This paper employs China＇s economic data from 1990 to 2007 to analyze the relationship between credit scales or structure and economic growth.Empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium and positive relationship between credit scales with different levels and economic growth;compared to non-financial sectors,the changes in credit scales of financial sectors have greater positive impacts on real GDP growth;there is only single-direction causality between credit scales with different levels and economic growth,namely economic growth has positive impact on the changes in credit scales with different levels and the reverse does not happen.