湖北省粮食产量波动周期与粮食安全分析

Influence cycles of the grain output in Hubei province and the analysis of food security

从湖北省粮食产量的现状出发,分析了1989—2009年间的粮食产量波动情况,根据湖北省20余年粮食统计资料,将波动理论应用于粮食产量变化的分析,采用波动系数、波动周期等指标研究粮食产量的波动周期与特征;进一步结合湖北省人口变化,提出确保湖北省粮食安全的针对性建议。

This paper firstly investigated the current situation of grain production in Hubei province, then specifically analyzed the fluctuations of grain output from 1989 to 2009. According to the Hubei food output statistics and survey in the recent 20 years, the wave theory was applied to the changes in food production, also fluctuation coefficient, volatility cycle and other indicators were used to study the fluctuation circle and character. The impacting factors of grain output were analyzed and proposals were made to ensure food security incorporating with the population change in Hubei province.