中国工业行业的能源效率(1987-2005)——变化趋势、节能潜力与影响因素研究

Industrial Energy Efficiency in China(1987-2005)——Trend,Conservation Potential and Influential Factors

本文在对行业的资本存量进行详细核算的基础上,采用DEA方法研究了工业14个部门的能源效率变化趋势与能源效率损失。研究表明:(1)总体上看,各行业能源使用效率都得到改善,但这种改善并非是持续的,而是存在一个先降低后上升的"U"型转变,转折期出现在1990-1995年间。(2)各行业的能源效率值都有提高的趋势,但行业间的能源效率差异性没有明显的趋同趋势。(3)尽管行业的能源效率在提高,但行业的能源损失的绝对量仍然很大,表明节能的潜力巨大。从节能规划的角度看,尤其要关注的是"高效率高损失量"和"低效率高损失量"这两类行业。最后,本文对影响能源效率的因素进行了计量分析。

In this paper,14 industrial sectors＇ energy efficiencies and losses are studied using DEA based on a detailed accounting of industrial capital stock.It indicates：（1）Overall,energy efficiency in every sector has been improved.As a matter of fact,this improvement was not continuous,while there was a ＂U＂ type changing between 1990 and 1995.（2）There is not convergence tendency between industries＇ energy efficiency although all industrial sectors＇ energy efficiencies are rising.（3）As industrial energy efficiency improving,the absolute amount of energy loss is still large indicating great potential for energy conservation.From the perspective of energy conservation planning,two type of sectors—＂high efficiency high loss＂ and ＂low efficiency high loss＂—must be paid particular attention.Finally,the factors affecting energy efficiency are carried out using econometrical methods.