消费者情绪对物价波动影响的分析

Influence of Consumer Sentiment on Price Fluctuations

用代表性消费者假设,建立了一个两期的经济模型,从消费者非完全理性的角度出发,分析了消费者情绪在过度乐观和过度悲观的情况下,消费者的消费行为对通货膨胀的影响。结果表明:过度乐观的消费者情绪会使得消费者增加当下的消费量并且会引起物价的上涨;而过度悲观的消费者情绪会使消费者减少当下消费量导致物价下跌。

Based on the representative consumer hypothesis, a two-period economic model was developed. From the view of non-rational consumers, impact of consumer behaviors on inflation was analyzed under over-optimistic and over-pessimistic. Results show that over-optimistic consumer sentiment will encourage more immediate consumption that lead to the rise of price; Over-pessimistic consumer sentiment will reduce the current consumption that lead to the fall of price.