中美物流业的产业关联效应动态比较分析

INDUSTRY DYNAMICAL RELEVANCY ANALYSIS AND COMPARATION OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA'S LOGISTICS INDUSTRY

基于中美1997、2002、2007年投入产出表和相关指标,比较分析了两国物流业与制造业、其他服务业的产业关联关系及其在不同经济发展阶段的动态变化特征。结果表明,由于目前我国尚处于工业化中期,我国物流业的发展对制造业具有较强的中间依赖,而美国已进入服务经济社会,物流业逐渐与其母体制造业分离,对其他服务业的依赖更强,且两国物流业与其他服务业的融合对产业价值创造贡献均更大;影响产业发展的因素中,产业自身的作用均占据主导地位,但对中国来说,物流业与制造业之间的互动效应也较大,而美国其他服务业与物流业之间互动更为显著。

Based on 1997,2002 and 2007 input-output tables of China and the United States,the paper compares the industry relevancy between logistics industry and manufacturing,other services of the two countries,and analysis their dynamic change tendency in different stages of economic development.The results show that： because China is still in the middle stage of industrialization,its logistics industry strongly depends on the manufacturing.While the United States has entered the service economy,its logistics industry is separating with manufacturing gradually and depends on other services stronger.Either China or the United States,the integration of logistics industry and other services has greater contribution to the industry＇s value creation;the industry itself are the most important factors affecting its development,and to China,the interaction between logistics industry and manufacturing is secondly important,but to the U.S,it is the interaction between logistics industry and other services.