黄土高原文冠果种群结构及其时间序列预测

Population Structure and Time Sequence Prediction of Xanthoceras sorbifolia in the Loess Plateau

本研究通过样地调查和数据统计,根据群落中各物种的重要值对陕西黄土高原地区文冠果种群的群落类型进行划分,并编制了不同生境下文冠果种群的静态生命表,绘制出存活曲线,同时运用时间序列模型预测种群数量动态。结果表明:陕西黄土高原地区的天然文冠果群落可划分为5个类型;总体而言,该地区文冠果种群中Ⅰ龄级个体所占比例较高,属于增长型种群;不同群落中的文冠果种群,其年龄结构和存活曲线也有所不同。时间序列分析表明,在未来10、15和20年中,不同文冠果种群的变化趋势是有差别的,其中文冠果-扁核木-铁杆蒿群落的文冠果种群、文冠果-酸枣-苔草群落的文冠果种群与种群总和变化趋势相似,都属于增长型种群,而文冠果纯林群落的文冠果种群、榆树+文冠果-茶条槭-苔草群落的文冠果种群和狼牙刺-牛皮消+臭草群落的文冠果种群属于衰退型种群。建议加强对衰退种群的管理,实现文冠果的可持续利用。

The field investigation and statistics analysis was used to study Xanthoceras sorbifolia populations in the Loess Plateau in Shaanxi,in which community types were divided and life table was worked out to draw the survival curve,and the time sequence mode was used to predict the population dynamics of X.sorbifolia.The results showed that the community of X.sorbifolia in the Loess Plateau of Shaanxi was divided into 5 types;Overall,the population of X.sorbifolia in the region had a high proportion of Ⅰ age-class,which was regarded as the growth population;Under the different communities,the age structure and survival curve of the X.sorbifolia population were different.The time series analysis showed that the change tendency of different X.sorbifolia populations would be different in the next 10,15 and 20 years.The X.sorbifolia populations of X.sorbifolia-Prinsepia uniflora-Artemisia sacrorum community,X.sorbifolia-Ziziphus jujuba var.spinosa-Carex lanceolata community were similar as the total population,which were regarded as the growth population,but the X.sorbifolia populations of X.sorbifolia community,Ulmus pumila＋X.sorbifolia-Acer ginnala-Carex lanceolata community and X.sorbifolia-Sophora davidii-Cynanchum auriculatum＋Melica scabrosa community were the decline population.To utilize X.sorbifolia sustainable,decline population management should be strengthened.