基于协整方法的四川省消费增长的就业效应研究

The Study of the Effects on Employment of Consumption Growth in Sichuan Province:a Cointegration Approach

利用四川省1978—2008年统计数据,采用协整方法估测了消费增长的就业效应。研究发现,从总量上看,当前和未来四川省消费增长的就业弹性分别为0.166和0.10,并且在统计意义上十分显著。Granger因果检验发现,从短期来看,就业和消费增长之间并不存在显著的因果关系;从长期来看,就业和消费增长之间互为因果关系。前述结论的政策含义在于:短期内,政府主导型投资应向拉动消费和推动就业的产业倾斜;长期内,扩大内需刺激消费的经济发展方式应从政府投资拉动型向居民消费拉动型转变。

Based on the data of sichuan province from 1978 to 2008, this paper uses a cointegration approach to estimates the effects on employment of consumption growth. Totally, the employment elasticity of consumption growth in current and future for Sichuan Province are 0. 166 and 0. 10 respectively, which are statically significant. Granger causality test further show that the causal relationship between employment and consumption growth is not significant in the short run. However, in the long run, both factors simultaneously affect each other. The policy implications of the above findings are as follows, in the short term, government-led investment should be in favor of industries which would promote consumption and employment; in the long term, it necessary to transfer the mode of economic development from the government investment - led to consumer - led to the benefit of expanding domestic demand and of boosting consumption.