全球化与社会福利改革的未来

Globalization and the Future of Social Welfare Reform

本文回顾了全球化改善收入水平的历史进程、动力以及对当前福利改革的影响。工业化不仅提高各国绝对人均收入,也扩大贫富差距,推动了福利制度的演进。就贫困率而言,发达国家和发展中国家的衡量标准不同,前者贫困率有所上升,而后者则取得显著成效。就全球不平等而言,按照人口加权计算,由于人口大国中国、印度获得持续经济增长,国家间不平等得到了改善;但以全球总人口的平均计算,不存在一个所谓的世界性"中产阶级"。就未来福利国家的改革而言,由于美国拥有技术和人口的优势,长期而言美国效应至关重要。由于人口规模和持续的经济增长,中国减贫、降低不平等的国内福利政策改革具有显著的国际效应。

This article reviews the role of globalization in income improvement and its impact on the current reform of welfare system.Although it has improved the living standards of almost all countries,industrialization has also widened income gap since the early 19th century and pushed the evolution of welfare system.In terms of poverty rate and inequality reduction,the developed and developing countries have had different standards,and the absolute poverty rate has dropped not only in developed but also in developing countries.However,in relative terms,developing countries have outperformed their developed counterparts in recent years.In terms of global inequality,there are at least three types of criteria.If taking the weight of population into account,the inequality between different countries has been reduced because of China and India's sustained economic growth.However,there is not a 'global middle class' based on the average of global population.With technology and population structure advantages,the United States is crucial in global social welfare reform.Moreover,due to its population and economic growth,China's domestic social welfare and poverty reduction policies will also have a great global bearing.