朝鲜核问题:中国应强力介入还是中立斡旋?

China’s Role in the Nuclear Issue of the Korean Peninsula:Mediator orContender?

自2009年4月14日朝鲜宣布退出六方会谈以来,朝鲜半岛局势高度紧张但无战争之虞。朝鲜面临生存压力但在未来相当长时期里不会崩溃。朝鲜参加六方会谈旨在以核武器为诱饵,换取朝美关系正常化。当六方会谈只谈朝鲜弃核而不谈美朝关系正常化时,朝鲜只能选择退出。美韩日三方提出过高的对话条件将阻碍六方会谈的恢复。中国对朝鲜半岛事务的卷入程度使其不能对朝核问题采取中立斡旋政策。中国更应当扮演一个强力介入者的角色,联合其他大国,共同维护朝鲜的安全利益。

Since the DPRK announced to retreat from the Six-Party Talks on April 14, 2009, the securitysituation in the Korean peninsula has intensified, but the second Korean War will not burst out.Although'DPRK collapse'has become a buzzword in the west, the country is set to continue to survivein the coming decade or decades. The DPRK has taken participation in the Six-Party Talks as abargaining chip for normalization of DPRK-US relations in exchange for abandonment of its nuclearcapabilities. If participants of the Six-Party Talks only discuss the issue of DPRK abandonment ofnuclear weapons while the US does not take meaningful steps to promote normalization of DPRK-USrelations, the DPRK has to choose to retreat from the talks. The preconditions set by the US, ROK andJapan, which will prove hard to fulfill, will hinder the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. China's roleas a neutral mediator actually reduces its influence on the nuclear issue of North Korea. The history ofChina's involvement in the peninsular affairs since 1950 shows that it could not become a neutralist;instead, it should better stand by the DPRK and play a strong role of a contender in the KoreanPeninsula.