摘要
利用新疆能源动态需求BVAR分析模型对新疆"十二五"期间能源需求进行预测,结果表明,如果没有价格和政策的大力调整实施,没有技术及管理水平的进步,新疆未来的能源需求上涨将极其迅速。因此,政府应当通过能源价格与产业结构调整,加大研发投入力度,促进技术进步,降低单位GDP能耗,从而在保持经济增长速度情况下尽可能降低能源需求的增长率。
This paper brings relevant macroeconomic factors into consideration, screens out a VAR model appropriate for the demand analysis of Xinjiang Province of China. To improve the results of VAR model, the author sets up a BVAR model, the results of which prove to be more realistic. Based upon the BVAR model, the author predicts the demand for energy in Xinjiang Province, which shows clearly the energy demand may increase very rapidly without the adjustment of price, the regulation, or any improvement in technology and management. Therefore, to reduce the demand for energy while keeping the economic growth, government should take actions like the adjustment of energy price and industrial structure and encouraging investment into R＆D, to lower the energy consumption for each unit of GDP.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第12期119-124,共6页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(7077309170473072)
关键词
BVAR
能源需求
人口结构
产业结构
能源结构
BVAR
energy demand
population structure
industrial structure
energy structure
