中国2010～2030年产业能源消费强度分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of China′s Industrial Energy Consumption Intensity during 2010-2030

应用多元回归分析法,运用1985～2007年的数据,对三大产业(第一产业、第二产业和第三产业)能源消费情况进行回归分析和检验,并引入广义差分模型,得出对各产业拟合度高的能源消费回归模型。在此基础上,对未来20年(2010～2030年)的各产业能源消费强度进行预测。其中,第一产业能源回归模型拟合程度达到95.57%,第二产业95.11%,第三产业97.75%。

This paper, using the multiple regression method, analyzes and inspects the energy consumption status of the three major industries（ the first, the second, and the third industry） on the basis of the data of 1985-2007. Meanwhile, the generalized differential model has been referred to in order to establish the regression model with high fitting degree for each industry. Based on the aforementioned researches, this paper forecasts China＇s industrial energy consumption intensity during the next 20 years（2010-2030）. Prediction reveals that the fitting degree of the energy regression model for the first industry is 95.57%, the second industry 95.11%, and the third industry 97.75%.