基于PVAR模型的R&D投入与产出关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationships of R&D Input and Output Based on PVAR Model

采用我国30个省市1998—2009年的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,使用方差分解和脉冲响应函数等分析方法,研究科研机构、企业和高校R&D经费投入以及研发人力投入对研发产出的长期和短期影响。实证结果表明:在三类研发经费投入中,企业研发对产出的贡献率最大;研发人员的研发产出效率并不理想;不仅研发投入各因素对研发产出有影响,而且研发产出对各个投入因素也有影响;前期专利授权数对当期专利产出具有同向作用;科研机构、企业和高校研发经费投入以及研发人员投入的滞后一、二期,都对当期自身投入有同向作用;科研机构和企业研发经费投入变动对研发人员投入具有同向作用。

This paper employs China＇s 30 provinces＇ panel data from 1998 to 2009, to study the dynamic effects of R＆D input and output through the establishment of PVAR （panel vector auto regression） model for the first time and using methods of variance decomposition and impulse response function. The R＆D input is composed of the sci- entific research institutions, enterprises and universities＇ funds input and labor input. The empirical resuh discovers： （1） In the three departments, the enterprise has the biggest contribution to output. （2） The personnel output efficiency is not ideal, （3）There are mutual influences between R＆D input and output. （4） Previous patent output and current output have the coincidental role. （5）The first and second order lags of the four factors have coincidental effect to current. （6）There is a coincidental role from scientific research institution and enterprise＇s input to the personnel＇ s input.