风电功率预测偏差管理与申报出力决策

Deviation Management of Wind Power Prediction and Decision-Making of Wind Power Bidding

风电功率的预测偏差会产生大量的自动发电控制(automatic generation control,AGC)调节费用。如何采用政策激励来提高风电预测准确性对电网安全与经济运行具有重大意义。研究了上网风电预测准确性考核管理与风电场最佳功率申报问题。借鉴当前电网调度公司对常规电源发电功率考核的方法,提出了考核风电功率预测不准确性的方法,并根据风电场风电功率预测概率密度,以风电场收益期望值最大为目标,提出了风电场申报出力的最佳决策方案。算例结果表明,该方法可提高风电预测的准确性。

The deviation of wind power prediction lead to a lot of adjustment cost for AGC, so how to utilize the incentive policy to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power is significant for secure and economic operation of power grid. The examination and management of prediction accuracy of wind power participated in market transaction and the optimal bidding of wind farm output are researched. Referring to present method to exam the generated power of conventional power plants by grid dispatch cooperation, a method to exam the uncertainty of wind power prediction is given; according to the probability density of wind power prediction and taking the maximum revenue expectation of wind farm as objective, a optimal decision-making strategy for the bidding of wind power is proposed. Case study results show that the proposed method can improve the accuracy of wind power prediction.