间接预测法在母线负荷预测中的应用

Application of Indirect Forecasting Method in Bus Load Forecasting

为避免220 kV母线供电区域内负荷转供、停电以及小电源等因素对母线负荷预测的不利影响,提出了一种间接预测母线负荷的方法。首先把母线下网负荷转换成该母线供电区域内的理想用电负荷,再将该理想用电负荷作为历史负荷数据采用系统负荷预测的算法进行预测得到初步预测结果,同时获取待预测日各种影响因素的值,初步预测结果剔除各种影响因素间接预测出母线下网负荷值。实例证明了相对于以母线下网负荷值作为历史数据的直接预测法,该方法的应用对供电区域内含有小电源的母线负荷预测的准确率有着明显的提高。

To avoid the adverse effects of load transfer, power supply interruption and small power sources in 220 kV power supply region on bus load forecasting, a method to indirectly forecast bus load is proposed. Firstly, the bus-supplied load is transferred into ideal load located in the region supplied by this bus; then regarding this ideal load as historical load data, the bus load is forecasted by system load forecasting algorithm to attain preliminary forecasting result, meanwhile the values of influencing factors in the forecasted day are obtained; finally, discarding various values of influencing factors from the preliminary forecasting result, the bus-supplied load is indirectly forecasted. Case study results show that applying the proposed method to the bus load forecasting under the condition that there are small power sources in the bus-supplied region, the bus load forecasting results are much accurate than those forecasted by direct forecasting method in which the bus-supplied load is taken as historical load data.