我国商业银行发展的现状与趋势预测

The Current Status and Trend Prediction of Commercial Banks in China

商业银行作为金融机构体系中最重要的组成部分,对社会经济发展起着不可估量的重大作用,同时,银行的发展又受经济环境的影响。在认识商业银行产生发展历程的基础上,探究其发展规律,分析我国商业银行的现状,总结出国际化、业务趋同化、基层化、电子银行发展迅速、个人银行业务与中间业务比重提升等6个特点,结合我国经济发展的前景预测我国商业银行未来发展可能出现的集团化、虚拟化、垄断逐步弱化等趋势。

As the most important part of the financial institution systems, the commercial bank plays an important role in the social economic development and is affected simultaneously by the economical environment. Based on the understanding of the originate and development of the commercial bank,the paper aims to explore its law of development,analyze the current status of commercial banks in China. Six characteristics are concluded ：internationalization,convergence,low branches, rapid development of e-bank,its increasing of proportion in personal banking business and intermediary business. Combined with the economic growth outlook in China,collectivization,virtualization and weak-ening monopoly the commercial bank will have in the future are forecasted.