中国经济持续性增长的理论与实证研究——基于VAR模型及脉冲响应函数的分析

The theoretical and empirical study on the sustainable growth of China economy ——Based on the analysis of VAR model and impulse response function

中国经济的持续增长一直是学界关注的焦点,利用ADF单位根在确保时间序列平稳性的前提下,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型和基于该模型的协整检验(Johansen)及脉冲响应函数,对我国经济持续性增长做了实证分析。结果表明,货币政策和财政政策均对我国的经济增长产生持久性冲击,从长期看来,财政政策相比货币政策的冲击更强烈,达到了2.5%,且持续时间更长。

The sustainable economic growth of China has been a focus of the academic circles.By using ADF unit root to guarantee the time series stability,utilizing the VAR model,the Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function,the article analyzes the sustainability of China economic growth empirically.It reaches the result that the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have produced persistent impacts on the economic growth of our country;from the long-term perspective,the fiscal policy has a stronger impact than the monetary policy,which reached 2.5% and maintained for a longer period.