人民币汇率变动对我国消费者价格指数的影响——基于协整与向量误差修正模型的分析

The influence on consumer price index change of RMB exchange rate ——An analysis based on co-integration and error correction models

正确预测人民币汇率变动与物价水平的关系,对于人民银行采取适当的汇率政策实现物价稳定具有重要的意义。运用了协整检验与向量误差修正模型的方法,以2000年1月至2010年6月的月度数据为样本,对人民币汇率变动对消费者价格指数的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:人民币名义有效汇率升值对消费者价格指数上涨有一定的抑制作用;基于此,提出控制目前高居不下的物价水平可以采用适当灵活的人民币升值政策,但要注意与财政货币政策的协调。

Correct prediction of the relation between RMB exchange rate and price level is important for the People＇s Bank of China to adapt appropriate exchange rate policy to achieve price stability.Using the Co-integration and Error Correction Models and taking the monthly data from January 2000 to June 2010 as a sample,the essay empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate on CPI.The results show that： the effective nominal exchange rate appreciation has a certain disinflation impact on domestic price;based on this,it presents that appropriate flexible RMB appreciation policy should be proposed in order to control the current higher price level,but close attention should be paid on the coordination of the fiscal and monetary policy.