电力系统灾难性事故的统一不确定性评估方法

United Uncertainty Assessment Method of Power System Catastrophic Accidents

为准确刻画电力系统灾难性事故的潜在风险,从灾难性事故的固有物理属性出发,基于不确定性理论提出了电力系统灾难性事故的统一不确定性评估新方法。将灾难性事故看作不确定事件,分别用可信性测度和全局模糊安全指标描述事故发生的可能性和严重性。以N-1事故作为初始事故,通过对每层N-k事故风险指标排序,识别出系统中最可能发生的灾难性事故序列。对WSCC 9节点系统和某地区实际系统进行仿真分析,与传统方法进行了比较,结果证明本文方法更符合系统实际运行情况,具有准确、有效的特点。

In order to accurately describe the potential risk of catastrophic accidents in a power system,a new united uncertainty method to assess catastrophic accidents was proposed based on their inherent physical properties and the uncertainty theory.The catastrophic accidents were regarded as the uncertain events,and the concepts of credibility measure and global fuzzy security index were developed to describe the likelihood and severity of catastrophic accidents.The N-1 contingencies were taken as the initial accidents and the most possible catastrophic accident sequences were identified through the risk ranking of all N-k contingencies in each simulation layer.The WSCC nine buses system and a regional practical system were simulated.Compared with the traditional methods,the proposed method was more accordant to practical power system operating conditions and had better accuracy and validity.