产业结构与环境污染关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Industry Structure and Environmental Pollution——Based on the Data for the Year 1995-2009

首先运用Granger因果检验方法分析国民经济各产业产出与污染排放量之间的联系;然后用回归方法分析三大产业在国民经济中所占的比例变化对环境污染的影响;之后针对各地区不同工业内部格局,计算相应的污染治理努力程度。研究表明:环境污染与各产业产值间存在长期稳定的协同效应;三大产业在国民经济中所占的比例影响着环境污染,工业产业是污染排放的最大因素;污染控制总量不能直接评价一个地区污染治理努力程度。

First,Granger＇s causality test method has been taken to analyze the relationship between the industrial output in national economy and their pollution emissions respectively. Secondly, the regression method has been carried out to analyze the impact of the change between the shares of the three major industries on the pollution of the environment. Thus the effort of pollution controlling in each area with different industrial internal structure can be calculated. Studies show that.there is long-term stable coop- erative effect between the pollution of the environment and the industrial output value, and the proportion of three major industries influence the pollution of the environment, and the industrial pollution is the biggest factor. The total amount of pollution can not directly evaluate the pollution control efforts in a region.